Global warming
Climate extremes could increase significantly by the end of the century

According to several studies, extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, and large temperature changes could multiply by the end of the century. An evolution linked to global warming due to human activities.

Orage et cultures d'orge Droughts, floods or strong variations in the thermometer could intensify in the coming years, according to Serge Planton of Météo-France. (© maldesowhat / Fotolia)

" Are climate extremes linked to climate change? ". This was the theme of the conference of Serge Planton, researcher climatologist at Météo-France, on the occasion of the general meeting of the association Weather and Climate on March 27th. "This is a question that is difficult to answer, as researchers sometimes lack long-term data," he said first and foremost.

This question was answered in 2017 by the "extremoscope", a research project funded by the Ministry of the Environment for Energy and the Sea (MEEM), and carried out by the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace and Météo-France. Its goal is to develop methods and tools to determine the influence of climate change on extreme weather events that have occurred in recent years.

Increased likelihood of extreme events

The study, published in June 2017, showed that the probability of the occurrence of certain climate extremes has increased in recent years. Scientists have particularly studied the heat wave of 2003. "We have no evidence that the heat wave was directly influenced by climate change. On the other hand, we have proved through simulations that a comparable event is more likely to occur because of human activity, "says Serge Planton.

In addition, this probability of occurrence of such a drought should increase more or less in the future, depending on the warming scenarios. "In case of median warming, ie between the level promised by the Paris agreements (2-3%), and the one where nothing is done to limit greenhouse gas emissions (4-5 %), the heat wave of 2003 could become the norm by 2070, "warns Serge Planton.

This is also the case for droughts. These could become longer, more extreme, and especially more frequent because of global warming. Agricultural droughts will be more and more commonplace, because of a double phenomenon of rising temperatures and drying up of soils. "By the middle of the century, an exceptional drought, like that of 1976 could become quite common and frequent," says the researcher.

Regarding precipitation, scientists are cautious. In particular, by analyzing the heavy rains of spring 2016 , they have not observed an increase in the frequency of this type of event in recent years. However, simulations show "an increase of 1.5 to 2 in this frequency compared to a climate without human activity, or a pre-industrial climatic period," adds Serge Planton.

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