Please be informed that these are just ramblings and may or may not be true. But I thought they're worth a short note, maybe somebody else could chip in some more information.
For almost two weeks, the deposits and withdrawals on Poloniex (arguably the biggest exchange for Steem/SBD) are disabled. That means you cannot transfer Steem/SBD from and to Poloniex. The result: trading is made only with the supply that is already on Poloniex. No new influx of capital.
It's not a surprise, though, that the price of Steem has been gracefully declined and trading was more or less sideways. But... There is a tiny, little "but": SBD has been trading in a more consistent way downwards. At the moment of writing, SBD is at $1.2, which, if you have any knowledge of the Steem ecosystem, is a rather good news. SBD is supposed to hold the peg to the dollar, in other words, 1 SBD should always be equal 1 USD. In the internal market, this is achieved by the price feed published by witnesses. But in an open exchange, unexpected things may appear, namely supply and demand.
So here are my ramblings.
1 - Somebody (or a group of somebodies, or just some trend formed around Steem, as a currency) tries to pump SBD, without having any idea about the peg. On an open exchange this is relatively easy: move your buy and sell orders until some FOMO is triggered and then watch the price going up.
2 - Because the increasing split between SBD and dollar could have unexpected and undesired consequences for the entire STEEM ecosystem, Steemit INC, (or somebody who has control over the relationship with Poloniex in regard to that), decided to stop the influx of capital, so SBD pump can stop. This assumption is supported by the warning from Poloniex:
It's a very drastic measure and it's already affecting the price of the other, more popular currency, the STEEM itself.
3 - Once SBD reaches the peg (and the people who are trying to pump it get tired or disappointed by their tiny profits from this currency) deposits and withdrawals from Poloniex may be restarted. At that point, expect a consistent surge in price for Steem.
Another interesting side of the story would be related to the supply on the exchanges: if the price will continue to stay low, buyers will step in and, eventually, the Steem supply on Poloniex will be diminished. That will push demand. And when the new influx of Steem will come to Poloniex, the price will go up.
Again, these are just ramblings at this point and may or may not have any link with reality.
I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.
https://steemit.com/~witnesses
If you're new to Steemit, you may find these articles relevant (that's also part of my witness activity to support new members of the platform):